Forecasting crude oil price amid volatility of global market using the Delphi method
Abstract
In a competitive and risky oil and gas market, governments or oil and gas companies will face difficulties if they cannot identify the oil and gas market movements (supply/demand/price). Accurate market forecast helps the governments and companies to be more pro-active in handling situations, taking advantage of business opportunities and avoiding losses. Accurate forecast is also an important basis for making policies and strategic decisions.
In the context of volatile oil prices, the errors of forecasting models are relatively large. The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) has piloted a price forecasting model for Dated Brent crude oil using the Delphi method. The forecasting results show that this method accurately predicts trends, errors are small compared with the actual price and the forecasting quality is good.
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